Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
BB 0xbb1c…bd78 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,943 (+71%) realized +$5,709 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,719
7 days+$5,295
14 days+$5,179
30 days+$5,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,439
other 4% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +90.5% +72.4% 61% 61% +59.5%
≤30d 45 +78.2% +61.2% 58% 58% +52.8%
≤90d 45 +78.2% +61.2% 58% 58% +52.8%
all 45 +78.2% +61.2% 58% 58% +52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.2% 58% +52.8%
10% +45.8% 58% +38.2%
15% +31.7% 58% +24.8%
20% +18.8% 58% +12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$148 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$5,709
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 68¢ $200 $278 +$78 (+39%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $200 $275 +$75 (+38%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 50¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 23¢ 31¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $407 −$400 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $204 +$282 +139%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $143 +$307 +215%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 +$169 +84%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $62 +$305 +496%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 +$352 +172%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $204 +$352 +172%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $306 +$551 +180%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $306 −$301 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $265 −$260 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$276 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$334 +109%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $153 +$334 +218%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$282 +276%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$214 +105%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $154 +$188 +122%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$424 +414%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 +$309 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $198 −$194 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $314 +$358 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 +$334 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $153 +$364 +238%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $82 +$194 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $365 +$460 +126%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$309 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 +$334 +326%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $53 +$292 +550%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $220 +$241 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $210 −$206 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $450 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $372 23h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 86¢ $367 23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $41 25h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 14¢ $62 25h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $102 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $203 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $204 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $204 27h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $306 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $306 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $265 2d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $57 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $153 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.33 · official $1,034.33 (match) · 87 history records