Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb19…0a0b sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.8% -36.5% 40% 40% -29.9%
≤30d 14 -20.8% -28.4% 43% 43% -20.2%
≤90d 14 -20.8% -28.4% 43% 43% -20.2%
all 14 -20.8% -28.4% 43% 43% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 43% -20.2%
10% -35.2% 43% -27.8%
15% -41.5% 43% -34.8%
20% -47.2% 36% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 47¢ 46¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $33 +$28 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $27 +$14 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $57 +$23 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $18 +$23 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $24 +$24 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $27 +$28 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $32 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $33 4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $17 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $17 4d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $20 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $16 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $27 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $41 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $41 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $18 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $26 7d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $32 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $17 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $14 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $24 8d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $27 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.45 · official $31.45 (match) · 30 history records