Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb16…cb20 politics 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$462 (+0%) realized +$462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate26%31W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$25
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$61
other 35% +$129
sports 10% +$393
economics 2% −$3
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -7.7% -16.4% 12% 3% -9.6%
all 119 +6.0% -4.1% 26% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 14% -9.2%
10% -13.3% 14% -17.9%
15% -21.7% 11% -25.8%
20% -29.3% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,343) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$6 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized+$462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses31 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage138d
Avg bet$905
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $790 $790 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $4,540 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $430 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,458 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,514 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,210 −$4 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,056 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $488 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $516 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,203 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $2,108 −$2 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $285 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $414 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 21 $328 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,410 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,062 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,259 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $598 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $604 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $605 8h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $430 25h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $430 28h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $607 29h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $607 31h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $790 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,191 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,401 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,402 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,299 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,301 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,246 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,248 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,209 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,210 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,335 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,337 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.38 · official $790.38 (match) · 343 history records