Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb16…f686 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-28%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$98
sports 27% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 67% -23.8%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 67% -23.8%
≤90d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 67% -23.8%
all 3 +0.5% -9.0% 67% 67% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 67% -23.8%
10% -17.7% 67% -31.1%
15% -25.7% 33% -37.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$118 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $103 +$37 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$20 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$118 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $103 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $103 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $83 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $191 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records