Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb11…66cb sports 454 markets active 2d ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,048 (+8%) realized +$21,391 · open −$2,343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%302W / 149L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Fees−$3,522est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10,620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$710
14 days+$2,204
30 days+$6,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$11,418
politics 7% −$2,464
other 4% +$1,963
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 69% 38% -4.7%
≤30d 179 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 49% -2.8%
≤90d 451 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 47% -4.1%
all 451 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 47% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 47% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -13.3%
15% -23.1% 22% -21.7%
20% -30.6% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$578) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$177 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$10,620
Realized+$21,391
Unrealized−$2,343
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses302 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$3,522
Open positions3
Markets (closed)451 / 454
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$534
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $4,500 $6,916 +$2,416 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $4,500 $2,084 −$2,416 (-54%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1,254 $1,274 +$21 (+2%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $293 $346 +$52 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,296 +$90 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $231 +$19 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $593 −$87 -15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $2,185 −$356 -16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,697 +$260 +15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $598 +$361 +60%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $503 +$57 +11%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$60 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $1,167 +$363 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $3,095 +$57 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $677 +$41 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $227 +$30 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $491 +$359 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $269 +$460 +171%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$68 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,030 −$253 -25%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $102 +$294 +290%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,010 +$420 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,000 −$321 -32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,112 −$112 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $600 +$165 +28%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $89 +$1 +2%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $332 −$291 -88%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $779 +$10 +1%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $242 +$191 +79%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $318 +$282 +88%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $521 +$244 +47%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $37 +$189 +511%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $244 +$97 +40%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $320 +$220 +69%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $214 −$2 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $95 +$4 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $333 +$55 +17%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $0 $0 +49%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $557 +$81 +15%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $780 +$1 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $524 +$226 +43%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $194 −$138 -71%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $222 +$243 +109%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $500 +$149 +30%
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 41h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 41h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 46h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $105 2d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $458 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 32¢ $506 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $178 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $7 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $113 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $295 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $748 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $88 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $87 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $173 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 20¢ $14 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 20¢ $22 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $81 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $147 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $149 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $155 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $61 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $11 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 59¢ $154 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 59¢ $224 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $1 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $1 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $15 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $248 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,620.11 · official $10,620.11 (match) · 3500 history records