Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

BB 0xbb0e…5008 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$58 (-60%) realized −$58 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-57.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-5.3%	-14.3%	50%	50%	+61.4%
≤30d	2	-5.3%	-14.3%	50%	50%	+61.4%
≤90d	4	-52.7%	-57.2%	25%	25%	-55.0%
all	4	-52.7%	-57.2%	25%	25%	-55.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.2%	25%	-55.0%
10%	-61.3%	25%	-59.3%
15%	-65.0%	25%	-63.3%
20%	-68.4%	25%	-66.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$58

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage30d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$21	+$19	+89%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	Jun 29	$1	−$1	-98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	May 30	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$39	−$38	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY	66¢	$15	1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$40	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	52¢	$11	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	52¢	$11	3h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$20	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	38¢	$39	30d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $14.84 · 7 history records