Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BB 0xbb0a…0a72 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$8

7 days−$2

14 days−$2

30 days−$7

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-21.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-8.7%	-17.4%	46%	46%	-11.4%
≤30d	15	-13.0%	-21.3%	47%	47%	-14.9%
≤90d	15	-13.0%	-21.3%	47%	47%	-14.9%
all	15	-13.0%	-21.3%	47%	47%	-14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.3%	47%	-14.9%
10%	-28.8%	40%	-23.0%
15%	-35.7%	40%	-30.5%
20%	-42.0%	27%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage

Net worth$47

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage25d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+12%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+46%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$14	+48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$10	+$7	+65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$10	-66%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+115%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$10	+$13	+124%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$0	$0	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Jun 12	$3	+$6	+191%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b	May 26	$5	−$5	-96%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	May 26	$2	$0	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$40	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	54¢	$10	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Iraq	42¢	$5	11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	54¢	$5	35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	37h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$10	39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$1	39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$10	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	3d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	22d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	22d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY Yes	34¢	$3	23d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	24d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	25d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.22 · official $47.22 (match) · 29 history records