Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb05…d19f crypto 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,380 (-10%) realized −$2,369 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%260W / 167L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days+$146
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$2,888
other 23% +$85
sports 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.0% -28.5% 40% 20% -5.6%
≤30d 7 -20.5% -28.1% 29% 14% -7.4%
≤90d 427 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 48% -21.3%
all 427 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 48% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 48% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 26% -28.8%
15% -29.3% 18% -35.7%
20% -36.3% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$31 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$2,083
Realized−$2,369
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses260 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)427 / 434
History coverage73d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $950 $945 −$5 (-1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $582 $583 +$2 (+0%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $330 $325 −$5 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $256 −$12 -5%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $539 −$126 -23%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,265 +$293 +23%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,261 +$1 +0%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 14 $185 −$55 -30%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $61 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $140 −$70 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 24 $234 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 24 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $115 −$58 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 23 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 22 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 22 $35 +$20 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 22 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 21 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 21 $143 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 21 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 21 $121 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $5 +$10 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 21 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 21 $10 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 21 $21 +$24 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 21 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 21 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $150 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 21 $111 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $22 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $23 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 95¢ $951 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $71 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $352 1h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $24 2h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 2h
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 2h
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $331 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $123 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $413 2h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $58 5d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $1,207 5d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $1,263 5d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $130 9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 21¢ $130 9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 30¢ $117 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $117 9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 9d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $21 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $72 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,083.09 · official $2,083.09 (match) · 2361 history records