Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb02…7a7c crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+5%) realized +$110 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate67%38W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$23
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$25
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.1% -17.8% 72% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 57 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 57 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 30% -10.6%
all 57 -6.7% -15.6% 67% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 30% -10.6%
10% -23.7% 21% -19.1%
15% -31.0% 5% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses38 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 76¢ 50¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $204 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $231 −$20 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $205 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $122 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $203 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $122 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $256 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $24 −$12 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $34 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $29 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $219 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $204 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $208 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $211 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $205 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.03 · official $13.03 (match) · 127 history records