Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbafe…5c14 weather 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,344 (-2%) realized −$5,345 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate90%245W / 28L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$847per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$2,136
14 days−$6,162
30 days−$5,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3,095
other 23% −$2,160
weather 22% −$1,403
world 14% +$810
crypto 9% +$271
politics 4% +$302
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -17.1% -25.0% 73% 7% -32.3%
≤30d 116 -5.7% -14.7% 89% 7% -18.4%
≤90d 117 -5.4% -14.4% 89% 8% -18.4%
all 273 -1.5% -10.9% 90% 12% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 12% -11.6%
10% -19.4% 4% -20.0%
15% -27.2% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$747) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$506 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$5,345
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses245 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)273 / 276
History coverage283d
Avg bet$847
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 87¢ 87¢ $202 $202 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $139 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $153 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $416 +$32 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $276 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $380 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $459 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $135 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $431 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $254 −$251 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $247 −$245 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$10 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $160 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $418 +$44 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2,039 −$1,774 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1,531 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $249 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 09 $117 −$57 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 +$38 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $281 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $319 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $162 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,022 +$9 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 07 $4,036 −$4,036 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $230 −$228 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $937 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $747 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $539 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $951 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1,216 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $345 +$25 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $276 +$13 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $399 −$372 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $85 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $20 40m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $77 52m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $27 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $161 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $22 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $95 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $66 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $78 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $53 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $106 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $24 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $70 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.17 · official $445.17 (match) · 2252 history records