Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbafe…b169 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4
world 32% −$7
politics 11% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 30% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 30% 0% -12.0%
all 36 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -10.0%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage445d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $22 −$6 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $33 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 19 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will Australia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $19 $0 -2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? Apr 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 28 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $23 $0 -0%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 30 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $27 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $17 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 15d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 18d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 21¢ $17 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $22 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $32 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $33 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $31 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $31 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $16 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $9 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $7 21d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL No 98¢ $11 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.97 · official $26.97 (match) · 115 history records