Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbafe…2de4 crypto 826 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$179 (+2%) realized +$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%490W / 336L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -51.5% -56.1% 16% 16% -45.2%
≤30d 87 -12.3% -20.7% 15% 15% -12.5%
≤90d 826 -0.6% -10.0% 59% 47% -6.3%
all 826 -0.6% -10.0% 59% 47% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 47% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 27% -15.2%
15% -26.5% 14% -23.4%
20% -33.7% 7% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses490 / 336
Open positions0
Markets (closed)826 / 826
History coverage58d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 826 Trades
no open positions (155 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$8 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$7 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$20 +1893%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2547 history records