Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbafc…2333 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$36 (-10%) realized −$21 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$26
world 14% −$14
sports 7% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +55.0% +40.3% 40% 40% -1.4%
≤30d 5 +55.0% +40.3% 40% 40% -1.4%
≤90d 5 +55.0% +40.3% 40% 40% -1.4%
all 5 +55.0% +40.3% 40% 40% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.3% 40% -1.4%
10% +26.8% 40% -10.9%
15% +14.6% 40% -19.5%
20% +3.3% 40% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$22 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $48 $34 −$14 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$56 +365%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 −$53 -45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 +$30 +62%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $71 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $65 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $117 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $38 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.54 · official $107.56 · 12 history records