trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 0% | 0% | -11.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 36% | 27% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 27% | 18% | +12.0% |
| all | 23 | -13.4% | -21.6% | 26% | 17% | +11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.6% | 17% | +11.6% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 17% | +0.9% |
| 15% | -36.0% | 9% | -8.8% |
| 20% | -42.3% | 4% | -17.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 4¢ | $402 | $167 | −$234 (-58%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 13¢ | $100 | $153 | +$53 (+53%) |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? | Yes | 2¢ | 8¢ | $40 | $140 | +$101 (+252%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $761 | −$11 | -2% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $298 | −$9 | -3% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $638 | +$152 | +24% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $61 | −$41 | -67% |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | Jun 13 | $83 | −$77 | -93% |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Jun 10 | $801 | +$70 | +9% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 10 | $104 | +$40 | +38% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $80 | +$24 | +30% |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD? | Jun 04 | $21 | −$20 | -95% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 30 | $71 | −$8 | -12% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | May 30 | $121 | −$107 | -89% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? | May 22 | $125 | −$109 | -88% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | May 22 | $71 | −$28 | -40% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | May 22 | $109 | −$69 | -63% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 16 | $2,207 | −$234 | -11% |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | May 12 | $400 | +$2,041 | +510% |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 16 | $50 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 16 | $40 | −$13 | -33% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Apr 10 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Aliens are Real" in March? | Apr 10 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? | Apr 01 | $150 | −$86 | -57% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 31 | $127 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 09 | $63 | −$12 | -19% |