Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbafb…e284 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$308 (-4%) realized −$328 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,693per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$993
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +18.9%
≤30d 1 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +18.9%
≤90d 1 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +18.9%
all 1 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 100% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.9% 100% +18.9%
10% +7.5% 100% +7.5%
15% ← realistic here -2.9% 0% -2.9%
20% -12.4% 0% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
21.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$973 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,500
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,693
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 71¢ 100¢ $2,480 $3,498 +$1,018 (+41%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ 0¢ $1,000 $2 −$998 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $3,097 +$973 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $978 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $28 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $557 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $864 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $1,521 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 11¢ $205 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 11¢ $141 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $73 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $13 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $4 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $292 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $13 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 39¢ $1,924 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $118 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $374 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $31 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $3 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $25 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $4 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $25 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,500.26 · official $3,500.26 (match) · 84 history records