Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbafa…02e0 sports 630 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,868 (+5%) realized +$2,915 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%298W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$821est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$927
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 94 -20.9% -28.5% 40% 40% -21.1%
≤90d 470 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 49% -11.5%
all 627 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 48% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -10.7%
10% -18.6% 47% -19.2%
15% -26.5% 45% -27.0%
20% -33.7% 41% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$87 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$2,915
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses298 / 329
Est. fees paid−$821
Open positions3
Markets (closed)627 / 630
History coverage157d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 51¢ 50¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-16%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Michel Pereira 24¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $185 −$183 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$54 +71%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$81 +180%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $192 −$188 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $210 −$206 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$49 -97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$102 +50%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$241 +118%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $66 +$39 +59%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$120 +59%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $202 +$132 +65%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $145 +$70 +48%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $42 −$41 -97%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $126 +$61 +48%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $6 +$10 +165%
LoL: FN Esports vs Frites Esports Club (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stag Jun 08 $68 +$47 +69%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $231 −$227 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $148 −$145 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $178 −$175 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $199 −$195 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $172 −$168 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $54 −$53 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $99 +$54 +54%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $200 −$197 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $263 −$259 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $200 +$132 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $225 −$162 -72%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $200 +$316 +158%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $71 −$69 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $711 −$499 -70%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $194 +$167 +86%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $198 +$248 +125%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $198 −$193 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $179 −$176 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $48 1m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $101 8m
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 19¢ $8 6d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $185 8d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $47 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $202 9d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 24¢ $52 12d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 54¢ $76 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $203 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $130 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $76 13d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 99¢ $121 14d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 35¢ $45 14d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 47¢ $53 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $152 14d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 29¢ $47 14d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 30¢ $192 15d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 39¢ $8 15d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 39¢ $202 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 7¢ $50 15d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOUD 100¢ $444 15d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 45¢ $203 15d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 60¢ $47 16d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 69¢ $19 16d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 66¢ $202 16d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $322 16d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 NORD 62¢ $202 16d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $335 16d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $202 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.79 · official $175.79 (match) · 1282 history records