Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xbaf8…4410 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$127 (+26%) realized +$101 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$160
other 46% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.3% +17.9% 70% 70% +22.3%
≤30d 10 +30.3% +17.9% 70% 70% +22.3%
≤90d 10 +30.3% +17.9% 70% 70% +22.3%
all 10 +30.3% +17.9% 70% 70% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 70% +22.3%
10% +6.6% 70% +10.6%
15% -3.7% 70% -0.1%
20% -13.1% 70% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 80¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$31 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$11 +53%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $109 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $25 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $54 35h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $25 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 40h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $76 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $46 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $80 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $49 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.25 · official $141.25 (match) · 20 history records