Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xbaf8…7f77 crypto 844 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,272 (-2%) realized −$3,272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%427W / 416L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day81.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15,334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.1% -22.3% 42% 38% -25.0%
≤30d 449 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 47% -15.1%
≤90d 843 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 47% -16.5%
all 843 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 47% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 41% -24.5%
15% -31.6% 37% -31.8%
20% -38.3% 31% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$221 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$3,272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses427 / 416
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)843 / 844
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day81.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 843 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 97¢ 96¢ $225 $225 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $408 −$176 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $331 −$159 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $154 +$146 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $168 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $177 −$173 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $355 −$57 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $331 −$100 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $232 +$185 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $332 −$77 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $507 −$27 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $181 +$183 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $186 +$156 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $129 +$120 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$116 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $131 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $155 −$152 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $132 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $176 −$156 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $181 −$146 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$153 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $206 +$136 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$56 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$88 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$36 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$75 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $127 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$87 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $208 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $300 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $11 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.63 · official $115.23 · 3500 history records