Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaef…4776 sports 417 markets active 6d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-14%) realized −$500 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%226W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$499
other 13% −$15
politics 4% +$17
world 1% −$16
crypto 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -18.8% -26.5% 35% 30% -48.6%
≤90d 412 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 53% -24.0%
all 412 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 53% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 53% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 42% -31.3%
15% -29.6% 33% -37.9%
20% -36.5% 26% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses226 / 186
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)412 / 417
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $2 +$2 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? May 28 $4 $0 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $60 −$39 -65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $2 +$1 +69%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $22 −$12 -56%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $83 −$36 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $22 −$1 -6%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $17 +$3 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $6 +$16 +273%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $42 +$38 +92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $10 −$5 -53%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $19 +$4 +19%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $18 +$14 +81%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $3 +$2 +47%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $33 +$7 +20%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $17 +$3 +20%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $11 −$10 -86%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 06 $9 +$11 +124%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $16 +$10 +63%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $19 +$7 +38%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 04 $15 +$2 +13%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $3 +$5 +135%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$1 +58%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 02 $34 −$24 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $1 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 79¢ $2 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 78¢ $1 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $1 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 38¢ $1 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 36¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $0 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 82¢ $2 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 82¢ $2 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 83¢ $2 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 60¢ $1 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 55¢ $1 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $2 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 74¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.21 · official $92.05 (match) · 1831 history records