Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaee…f6ae other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$36
world 21% −$5
other 11% −$3
politics 5% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
all 48 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -12.3%
10% -22.1% 0% -20.7%
15% -29.7% 0% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage466d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 −$7 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $78 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 20 $7 −$1 -13%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $113 +$4 +3%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 18 $140 −$27 -19%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $127 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $67 −$2 -3%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $128 $0 -0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $151 −$10 -6%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $21 −$4 -19%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 25 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $14 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $17 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $7 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $38 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $12 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $29 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $41 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records