Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaee…8911 other 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-11%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$48
sports 7% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 20% -22.6%
≤30d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 20% -22.6%
≤90d 15 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 20% -22.6%
all 15 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 20% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 20% -22.6%
10% -29.7% 20% -30.0%
15% -36.5% 13% -36.7%
20% -42.7% 13% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $57 +$18 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$33 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $42 −$29 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $22 −$8 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $73 −$5 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $51 −$11 -21%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $47 −$5 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $62 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes $14 12h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 14h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 32h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records