Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaed…cc48 world 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$4
other 27% +$3
politics 20% $0
sports 16% +$1
crypto 4% −$17
economics 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 67 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 1% -9.5%
all 81 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 51
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage332d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $346 −$3 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $131 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $121 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $162 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $135 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $77 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $140 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $218 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $153 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $108 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $290 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $136 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $410 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $426 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $297 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $136 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $152 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $135 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $136 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $409 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $78 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $8 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $123 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $132 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $131 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $131 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $119 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $121 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $83 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $104 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $107 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $122 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.76 · official $120.75 (match) · 359 history records