Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xbaec…d15b
crypto · 793 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$410 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$302 · open −$108
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses204 / 583
Open positions6
Markets (closed)787 / 793
History coverage22d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day104.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 787 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$727
7 days−$1,826
14 days−$222
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 25¢ 8¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-66%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 26¢ 6¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 35¢ 4¢ $35 $4 −$32 (-90%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 24¢ 1¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$58 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$52 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$3 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$18 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$18 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$5 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$46 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$43 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$28 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $68 −$28 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$12 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$36 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$57 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$33 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$35 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$78 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$55 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$117 +301%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$15 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$24 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$9 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$242
finance 1% −$129
world 0% −$14
other 0% −$15
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $40 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $30 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $13 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $8 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $12 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $9 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 645 -31.6% -38.1% 27% 25% -18.1%
≤30d 787 -23.5% -30.8% 26% 24% -14.2%
≤90d 787 -23.5% -30.8% 26% 24% -14.2%
all 787 -23.5% -30.8% 26% 24% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover104.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.8% 24% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.4% 22% -22.5%
15% -43.4% 20% -29.9%
20% -49.0% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.21 · official $17.21 (match) · 3156 history records