Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbaea…ffd0 crypto 412 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-7%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%179W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 280 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 44% -17.6%
≤30d 374 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 412 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 41% -19.1%
all 412 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 41% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 41% -19.1%
10% -27.4% 38% -26.8%
15% -34.4% 35% -33.9%
20% -40.9% 27% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses179 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage37d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 412 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.70 · official $9.70 (match) · 723 history records