Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbae7…e049 crypto 682 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-2%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%577W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$70
14 days−$241
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$198
sports 8% −$33
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -7.6% -16.4% 81% 2% -10.9%
≤30d 664 -5.7% -14.7% 84% 4% -12.2%
≤90d 682 -5.5% -14.5% 85% 4% -11.8%
all 682 -5.5% -14.5% 85% 4% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 4% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 2% -20.2%
15% -30.1% 1% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses577 / 105
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)682 / 682
History coverage67d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 682 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2508 history records