Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xbae4…50fe crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,261 (-5%) realized −$6,538 · open +$277
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%83W / 62L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,537est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$265
14 days−$265
30 days−$4,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$7,133
crypto 4% −$473
other 1% +$271
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +338.1% +296.4% 20% 20% -57.7%
≤30d 45 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 42% -7.6%
≤90d 145 -0.5% -9.9% 57% 37% -10.1%
all 145 -0.5% -9.9% 57% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 37% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 24% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 15% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$495 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,972
Realized−$6,538
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses83 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,537
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage47d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $1,693 $1,970 +$277 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$11 +44%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $136 −$109 -80%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $121 −$121 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $150 −$14 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $181 −$86 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $168 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $79 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$28 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $326 −$277 -85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $565 +$118 +21%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 05 $1,725 −$1,708 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $7,001 −$6,673 -95%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $1,624 −$1,600 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $1,543 +$398 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,746 +$5,468 +199%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $7,231 −$2,222 -31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $2,315 +$2,659 +115%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3,823 −$1,513 -40%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $3,422 +$412 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $3,123 +$300 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $2,731 +$393 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $12,080 −$11,928 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $8,926 +$2,648 +30%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $17,095 +$1,974 +12%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $6,035 +$1,383 +23%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $502 +$91 +18%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,518 +$1,050 +69%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,019 +$51 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $2,012 +$455 +23%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $6,869 +$290 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6,450 +$514 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4,929 +$1,204 +24%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,755 +$2,212 +80%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $357 −$238 -67%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $365 −$360 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $298 +$67 +23%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $717 +$594 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $713 +$7 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,084 −$148 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 22 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $16 +$8 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,701 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $24 10h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Indiana Fever 10¢ $24 10h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $136 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 81¢ $121 14h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $121 14h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $114 20h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan $15 20h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 14¢ $36 21h
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 60¢ $91 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL San Francisco Giants 43¢ $91 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $90 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $90 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $80 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $80 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $94 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $93 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $74 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $74 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $79 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $79 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $51 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Maja Chwalinska $50 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 25¢ $326 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 64¢ $327 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 69¢ $358 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 60¢ $356 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,971.84 · official $1,967.27 (match) · 375 history records