Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xbae2…c3c4 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-6%) realized −$135 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$428
7 days+$92
14 days+$150
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$285
other 31% −$87
world 6% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +11.0% +0.4% 25% 25% +2.5%
≤30d 49 +6.4% -3.8% 29% 29% -4.7%
≤90d 49 +6.4% -3.8% 29% 29% -4.7%
all 49 +6.4% -3.8% 29% 29% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 29% -4.7%
10% -13.0% 29% -13.8%
15% -21.4% 29% -22.1%
20% -29.1% 24% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$35 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage21d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 22¢ 20¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$2 -8%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 +$199 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$112 +365%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $42 −$42 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 +$19 +79%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $112 +$100 +90%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$48 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$51 -93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$102 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$32 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$28 -92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $41 −$33 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $45 −$45 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $142 −$51 -36%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 21h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $42 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 41¢ $45 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.78 · official $114.78 (match) · 85 history records