Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbae1…d8ab sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,185 (+4%) realized +$2,211 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%39W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$1,580
14 days+$2,449
30 days+$2,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$289
sports 38% +$1,205
crypto 3% +$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 67% -1.6%
≤30d 42 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 57% -2.7%
≤90d 42 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 57% -2.7%
all 63 -7.1% -15.9% 62% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 52% -5.3%
10% -24.0% 38% -14.4%
15% -31.3% 22% -22.7%
20% -38.1% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$579) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$238 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$4,824
Realized+$2,211
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses39 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions7
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage157d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3,000 $2,983 −$17 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 65¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $503 +$146 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,011 +$123 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $302 +$93 +31%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,013 +$477 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $607 +$346 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $363 −$360 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $505 −$126 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,612 +$433 +12%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $303 +$132 +44%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $756 +$244 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $116 −$114 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $504 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $171 +$229 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $279 +$221 +79%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$10 -10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,385 +$615 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $268 +$232 +86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $765 +$235 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $266 +$734 +276%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1,022 −$21 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $597 −$590 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $824 −$820 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $504 +$163 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $2,973 +$227 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,018 +$839 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $243 −$243 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5 Feb 01 $6 +$3 +43%
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Feb 01 $670 −$520 -78%
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Feb 01 $261 +$11 +4%
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 Feb 01 $370 +$83 +22%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $4,806 +$253 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,013 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $97 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026- BUY 53¢ $203 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 20 BUY 27¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $51 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,129 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $659 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $35 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $84 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $97 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $300 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,823.58 · official $5,123.58 · 207 history records