Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbae1…2def other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$740 (-6%) realized −$738 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 30% −$215
economics 29% −$48
other 21% +$348
sports 10% +$89
politics 10% −$909
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.0% -20.3% 46% 46% -19.0%
≤30d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 48% -6.2%
≤90d 30 -3.2% -12.5% 50% 50% -7.9%
all 49 -18.7% -26.4% 41% 41% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 41% -15.7%
10% -33.5% 39% -23.8%
15% -39.9% 35% -31.1%
20% -45.8% 31% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$75 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$738
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage589d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $99 $116 +$17 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $75 $98 +$23 (+31%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 35¢ 14¢ $69 $29 −$41 (-59%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$63 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $51 −$45 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$11 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $236 +$164 +70%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 01 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $52 +$47 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 19 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 19 $24 +$16 +64%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 19 $3,008 −$2 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 27 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 12 $100 +$91 +91%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 12 $40 +$10 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $67 −$66 -99%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $54 −$54 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 31 $3,282 −$177 -5%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? Dec 24 $1,296 +$624 +48%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 18 $100 −$38 -38%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 05 $150 −$38 -26%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 05 $63 −$51 -80%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $50 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $51 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 36¢ $40 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 5d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $25 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.33 · official $366.33 (match) · 137 history records