Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbae0…7b62 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-10%) realized −$189 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$164
other 12% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.8% -17.5% 47% 47% -18.2%
≤30d 44 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% -20.5%
≤90d 44 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% -20.5%
all 44 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 45% -20.5%
10% -27.1% 45% -28.1%
15% -34.2% 43% -35.1%
20% -40.6% 43% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage22d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5 Over 36¢ 49¢ $39 $53 +$15 (+38%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Over 43¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $75 +$66 +88%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $41 +$25 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$54 +132%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $28 +$36 +127%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $25 +$23 +91%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $3 +$10 +321%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $33 +$51 +156%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $31 +$19 +60%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $25 +$16 +66%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $28 +$40 +143%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$29 +54%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $28 +$22 +80%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$52 +116%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 +$10 +29%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $50 +$29 +58%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $70 +$50 +72%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $33 −$32 -97%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $78 −$77 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $33 +$24 +73%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 +$57 +81%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $63 +$39 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5 BUY Over 36¢ $40 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $15 8h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $30 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 34¢ $40 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $75 10h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 52¢ $15 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 42¢ $10 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 56¢ $40 11h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 60¢ $35 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 61¢ $41 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 21h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $2 22h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $28 26h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $25 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 49¢ $25 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 23¢ $3 33h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert $3 34h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 34¢ $7 34h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 51¢ $39 34h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 51¢ $21 36h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 38¢ $33 37h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $31 39h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 59¢ $25 41h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 40¢ $28 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 66¢ $84 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $55 45h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $48 2d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.37 · official $58.37 (match) · 79 history records