Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbade…819e other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$45
sports 19% +$69
crypto 8% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.9% -20.3% 38% 38% -20.9%
≤30d 16 +14.0% +3.1% 44% 44% -0.0%
≤90d 21 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 38% -11.0%
all 21 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 38% -11.0%
10% -22.1% 38% -19.5%
15% -29.6% 38% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage82d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 15¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+90%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$35 +350%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 1h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 28h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 17d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 61d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes $10 63d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 63d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 68d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 70d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.13 · official $44.14 (match) · 49 history records