Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xbadb…7f12
crypto · 483 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$159 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$56
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses207 / 248
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)455 / 483
History coverage188d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 28 History 455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 36¢ 23¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 57¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +40%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +40%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$3 -54%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 11 $2 +$5 +238%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +33%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 27 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 23 $1 $0 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 -21%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 15 $1 $0 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -97%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +58%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 27 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$105
other 9% −$16
world 6% −$31
politics 1% −$4
sports 1% −$4
weather 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $0 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 70¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.5% -21.7% 67% 67% -14.5%
≤30d 12 -14.1% -22.3% 58% 58% -16.4%
≤90d 305 -38.3% -44.2% 30% 23% -38.1%
all 455 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 37% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 37% -19.0%
10% -28.9% 30% -26.7%
15% -35.8% 23% -33.8%
20% -42.1% 16% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.60 · official $55.23 (match) · 3175 history records