Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbada…ef0d other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized +$173 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$198
sports 16% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 27% -13.1%
≤30d 11 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 27% -13.1%
≤90d 11 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 27% -13.1%
all 11 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 27% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 27% -13.1%
10% -57.2% 27% -21.4%
15% -61.4% 27% -29.0%
20% -65.1% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$37 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 20¢ $205 $60 −$145 (-71%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $207 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $7 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 19¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.71 · official $59.71 (match) · 19 history records