Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbad4…42eb other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$4
politics 27% −$3
sports 13% −$31
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -3.8% -12.9% 9% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage130d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 27d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 38d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 44d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 44d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 44d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 44d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 45d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 45d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $53 45d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $53 46d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 46d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 47d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 47d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 47d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 47d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 47d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 47d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 47d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 48d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 48d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 48d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 48d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 368 history records