Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbad2…5296 world 187 markets active 7h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$149,339 (+44%) realized +$142,728 · open +$6,611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%73W / 48L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,820per market
Trades / day136.3pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$141,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,990
7 days+$35,385
14 days+$45,793
30 days+$65,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$43,454
politics 25% +$24,577
other 22% +$1,682
crypto 11% +$2,452
tech 2% +$829
sports 1% −$798
finance 1% −$497
economics 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +16.5% +5.4% 62% 48% +14.7%
≤30d 121 +39.0% +25.7% 60% 46% +13.7%
≤90d 121 +39.0% +25.7% 60% 46% +13.7%
all 121 +39.0% +25.7% 60% 46% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 46% +13.7%
10% +13.7% 43% +2.8%
15% ← realistic here +2.7% 36% -7.1%
20% -7.3% 28% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,078) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,014 vs −$186 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$141,474
Realized+$142,728
Unrealized+$6,611
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses73 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions170
Markets (closed)121 / 187
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$1,820
Trades / day136.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 170 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $12,443 $12,435 −$8 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $6,882 $7,841 +$959 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $4,710 $5,536 +$826 (+18%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $4,725 $5,191 +$466 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $4,492 $4,446 −$47 (-1%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $3,752 $4,331 +$579 (+15%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,845 $4,229 +$384 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $5,064 $4,133 −$931 (-18%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 79¢ 94¢ $3,404 $4,017 +$613 (+18%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $3,286 $3,876 +$590 (+18%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 86¢ $3,107 $3,705 +$598 (+19%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $3,094 $3,694 +$600 (+19%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $3,321 $3,442 +$121 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $3,286 $3,384 +$98 (+3%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,952 $2,598 +$646 (+33%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $2,209 $2,467 +$257 (+12%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $2,199 $2,436 +$237 (+11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $3,238 $2,378 −$860 (-27%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $2,194 $2,318 +$124 (+6%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $2,203 $2,308 +$105 (+5%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $2,145 $2,284 +$140 (+7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $2,069 $2,134 +$65 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $1,800 $2,117 +$317 (+18%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 80¢ 92¢ $1,836 $2,101 +$265 (+14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2,155 $2,096 −$59 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $476 +$24 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9,111 +$156 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 +$37 +110%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $355 +$1,269 +358%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $166 −$79 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21,830 +$2,574 +12%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $2,767 +$202 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3,233 +$759 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $36,981 +$8,317 +22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $526 −$107 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $363 +$137 +38%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $457 −$457 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $950 +$50 +5%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $183 +$317 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$403 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $2,729 +$4,250 +156%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $635 −$226 -36%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 16 $355 −$241 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $624 +$326 +52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 16 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 16 $437 −$437 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 16 $486 −$438 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 16 $481 −$143 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $1,021 +$687 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 16 $959 −$397 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 16 $233 −$142 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 16 $2,159 −$274 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $95 +$29 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $843 +$73 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,905 +$1,844 +97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,777 +$3,004 +169%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2,570 +$896 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $567 +$96 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,520 +$1,368 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $2,452 +$928 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $498 +$346 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,167 +$554 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,662 +$719 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,567 +$4,757 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,096 +$2,657 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $71 7h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $11 9h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $9 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $253 12h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $2,211 13h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $858 13h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $249 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $183 13h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1,369 14h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $476 16h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $40 17h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $20 19h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $6 24h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $66 27h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 27h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 27h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $84 27h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 28h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $5 31h
Weed rescheduled by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 31h
Weed rescheduled by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $263 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $427 32h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 92¢ $204 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 93¢ $206 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 34h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141,474.10 · official $141,456.82 (match) · 3500 history records