Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbad1…edb7 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 49L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
world 29% +$17
politics 16% +$3
economics 13% −$7
sports 3% +$1
finance 1% −$33
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 39% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 31 +61.8% +46.4% 35% 6% -9.8%
all 78 +23.7% +11.9% 37% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 5% -9.7%
10% +1.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -8.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -17.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage457d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $575 +$2 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $162 −$2 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $162 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $483 +$17 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $153 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 −$3 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $324 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $175 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $154 −$12 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $73 +$13 +18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $134 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $45 −$33 -73%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $15 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $881 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $981 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $981 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $64 −$7 -10%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,099 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $17 +$15 +84%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 23 $13 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $153 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $138 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $162 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $20 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $142 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $162 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $94 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $84 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $175 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $96 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $150 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $3 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $97 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $73 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $77 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $165 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $134 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $122 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records