Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbace…3429 other 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 241d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55,619 (+5%) realized +$25,653 · open +$29,966
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate71%140W / 57L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,131per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$254,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days+$2,661
14 days+$4,756
30 days+$5,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$28,791
crypto 34% +$16,169
finance 19% +$9,927
world 4% +$2,773
politics 1% −$642
sports 1% +$1,406
tech 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.8% -21.1% 58% 21% -5.1%
≤30d 43 +4.9% -5.1% 65% 33% -3.4%
≤90d 87 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 26% -4.7%
all 197 +3.7% -6.2% 71% 30% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 30% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 16% -15.3%
15% -23.4% 11% -23.5%
20% -30.9% 7% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$4,886) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$581 vs −$927 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$254,744
Realized+$25,653
Unrealized+$29,966
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses140 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions68
Markets (closed)197 / 265
History coverage241d ⚠
Avg bet$4,131
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $18,018 $20,295 +$2,277 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 82¢ 84¢ $19,184 $19,873 +$689 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 90¢ $14,015 $19,093 +$5,079 (+36%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $16,560 $18,487 +$1,927 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 80¢ $9,976 $14,076 +$4,100 (+41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $11,292 $12,496 +$1,204 (+11%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 72¢ 90¢ $9,263 $11,625 +$2,362 (+26%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $9,459 $9,522 +$63 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 88¢ 100¢ $7,184 $8,147 +$963 (+13%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 96¢ $7,952 $7,953 +$2 (+0%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $6,330 $6,907 +$577 (+9%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $6,324 $6,591 +$267 (+4%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 84¢ $4,940 $6,179 +$1,239 (+25%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 85¢ $4,029 $6,132 +$2,103 (+52%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $5,283 $5,854 +$570 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $4,793 $5,687 +$895 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $4,595 $5,539 +$944 (+21%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $4,341 $4,558 +$217 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $4,246 $4,535 +$289 (+7%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 85¢ 93¢ $4,005 $4,383 +$378 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $3,929 $4,222 +$293 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $3,745 $3,519 −$226 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $2,540 $3,517 +$978 (+38%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,183 $3,184 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $1,272 $3,127 +$1,856 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 29 $9,118 +$847 +9%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $649 −$649 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $885 −$361 -41%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,052 +$29 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $3,534 +$214 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $528 −$193 -36%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3,312 +$287 +9%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $410 +$19 +5%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $97 +$4 +4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $514 +$200 +39%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $3,868 +$630 +16%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $245 −$218 -89%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6,447 +$1,188 +18%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $2,931 +$305 +10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,522 +$928 +37%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $160 −$84 -52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $546 +$234 +43%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $5,329 +$548 +10%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $4,886 −$325 -7%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3,779 −$742 -20%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $884 −$69 -8%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $176 −$116 -66%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $1,978 +$70 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $136 +$44 +33%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $88 −$45 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$116 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$65 +125%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 21 $277 −$61 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $237 +$113 +48%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $37 −$17 -46%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,826 −$125 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,612 +$278 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,006 +$33 +3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $255 +$38 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 18 $17,156 +$1,632 +10%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $290 +$97 +33%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $256 +$1 +0%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $883 −$3 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,585 +$109 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $647 +$67 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,991 +$586 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $2,526 −$64 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $2,335 +$277 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $3,194 +$213 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $9,730 +$267 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 24 $1,670 −$6 -0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $75 +$25 +33%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $4,556 +$1,110 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $19 0m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 42m
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $2 59m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $143 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $7,943 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $9,965 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $157 2h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $2 3h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $35 3h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 3h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 42¢ $84 3h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 91¢ $61 5h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 9h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 13h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $10 14h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 14h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $24 15h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 91¢ $191 15h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $3,866 16h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $1,430 17h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $166 18h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 18h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $28 18h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $117 18h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $24 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254,743.82 · official $254,757.02 (match) · 3500 history records