Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xbacc…723e other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$11
sports 40% +$19
crypto 2% +$12
world 1% −$12
politics 1% +$10
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.4% -7.3% 94% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 18 +2.4% -7.3% 94% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 19 -3.0% -12.2% 89% 0% -7.9%
all 45 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 20% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 20% -6.4%
10% -16.7% 20% -15.4%
15% -24.7% 13% -23.6%
20% -32.1% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage708d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals No 97¢ 98¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists No 97¢ 88¢ $86 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Breel Embolo: 2+ assists Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $87 +$5 +5%
Jorge Carrascal: 2+ goals Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $65 +$1 +1%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Munar Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? Dec 14 $5 +$11 +223%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 14 $13 +$4 +28%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 07 $14 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Nov 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31? Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1 Sep 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift attend Chiefs game? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Zircuit airdrop by September 30? Sep 05 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump stream with Adin Ross on August 5? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Biden speak at the DNC? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Sep 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Biden drops out in July? Sep 05 $1 +$7 +900%
[Single Market] Will Kamala Harris win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presid Aug 05 $1 +$6 +439%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $37 9h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $50 9h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 96¢ $48 9h
Breel Embolo: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 97¢ $50 9h
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $19 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $65 25h
Jorge Carrascal: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $19 2d
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 2d
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Munar BUY Bergs 97¢ $19 2d
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 96¢ $19 2d
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 2d
Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 2d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 79d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $8 171d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY Vitality 78¢ $13 195d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? BUY Up 31¢ $5 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.20 · official $274.20 (match) · 101 history records