Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbacb…7d78 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$2
world 26% +$5
politics 7% +$8
culture 6% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 35% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 35% 6% -9.0%
all 41 +5.5% -4.5% 32% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 7% -8.2%
10% -13.7% 5% -17.0%
15% -22.0% 5% -25.0%
20% -29.6% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.88 per $1 lost it wins $4.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage346d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$4 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $24 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $8 $0 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $39 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.14ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 12 $6 +$8 +129%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 11 $7 +$6 +77%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $28 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $17 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $41 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records