Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbac9…420c crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$318 (+40%) realized +$320 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$512
7 days+$512
14 days+$529
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$593
crypto 31% −$180
politics 7% −$4
world 6% −$50
sports 5% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +126.7% +105.1% 60% 60% +345.6%
≤30d 6 +119.3% +98.4% 67% 67% +308.3%
≤90d 9 +46.2% +32.3% 44% 44% +197.7%
all 21 -23.0% -30.3% 29% 29% +36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 29% +36.5%
10% -37.0% 29% +23.4%
15% -43.1% 24% +11.5%
20% -48.6% 24% +0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +229% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$20 · ×5.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$320
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage235d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 16 $110 +$502 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$16 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the Feb 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Feb 26 $121 +$41 +34%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 26 $73 +$50 +68%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Nov 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down $6 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up $1 105d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $110 110d
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 145d
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 145d
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? BUY No 75¢ $121 219d
Bills vs. Dolphins BUY Bills 82¢ $20 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.36 · official $146.36 (match) · 42 history records