Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbac4…86db sports 1371 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,059 (-10%) realized −$1,055 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%733W / 622L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$87
14 days+$29
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$146
other 15% +$65
world 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 +8.8% -1.5% 53% 52% -3.5%
≤30d 871 +5.9% -4.1% 54% 53% -4.6%
≤90d 1355 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 53% -10.6%
all 1355 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 53% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 49% -19.1%
15% -22.0% 42% -26.9%
20% -29.7% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses733 / 622
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1355 / 1371
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 38¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-23%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 54¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 55¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +140%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 +$9 +206%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $2 +$4 +172%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $5 17m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $5 18m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $5 24m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $5 26m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $5 27m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $5 28m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $2 28m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $5 49m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $4 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $5 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $5 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $5 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $5 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 32¢ $4 8h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 8h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 56¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 5¢ $2 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 31¢ $3 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 9h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $5 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $5 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 70¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.09 · official $80.09 (match) · 3500 history records