Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BA 0xbac3…78a5 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$4,239 (+68%) realized +$4,245 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$518per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$358

7 days+$2,280

14 days+$4,253

30 days+$4,253

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+47.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+43.6%	+29.9%	62%	50%	+36.5%
≤30d	11	+63.3%	+47.8%	64%	55%	+56.0%
≤90d	11	+63.3%	+47.8%	64%	55%	+56.0%
all	11	+63.3%	+47.8%	64%	55%	+56.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.8%	55%	+56.0%
10%	+33.6%	45%	+41.1%
15%	+20.7%	36%	+27.5%
20%	+8.9%	36%	+15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$772 vs −$287 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$194

Realized+$4,245

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage12d

Avg bet$518

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$302	+$73	+24%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$306	+$37	+12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$358	+$1,027	+287%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$855	−$779	-91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$507	+$34	+7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Jun 24	$1,000	+$2,193	+219%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$304	−$300	-99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Jun 21	$1,000	−$5	-0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$715	+$1,616	+226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$301	+$420	+140%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$360	−$64	-18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	80¢	$302	1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$343	1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$306	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$143	46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	30¢	$60	47h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$204	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$307	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	42¢	$509	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	58¢	$541	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$405	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	44¢	$3,193	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	53¢	$304	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$24	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$16	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$4	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$398	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	13¢	$22	6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL Yes	45¢	$995	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	13¢	$530	6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	45¢	$1,000	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,331	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$715	7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	40¢	$722	7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	16¢	$301	7d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$296	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.12 · official $194.12 (match) · 35 history records