Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbac0…9f06 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$102 (-7%) realized −$106 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$3
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$135
crypto 13% −$30
sports 9% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 67% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 58% -19.7%
≤90d 24 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 58% -19.7%
all 24 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 58% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 58% -19.7%
10% -27.0% 46% -27.4%
15% -34.1% 33% -34.4%
20% -40.6% 17% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$47 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$61 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$37 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$74 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$64 +64%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$11 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $104 +$29 +28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$12 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$16 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $149 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $166 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $34 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $41 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $130 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.67 · official $253.68 (match) · 50 history records