Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xbabf…0c45 crypto 1746 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate87%1524W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$8
14 days−$29
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 60% -10.6%
≤30d 523 -3.3% -12.5% 85% 48% -12.5%
≤90d 1399 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 37% -10.3%
all 1748 -0.7% -10.2% 87% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 36% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1524 / 224
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1748 / 1746
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) France 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.26 (match) · 3500 history records