Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xbaba…cf38 crypto 774 markets active 3h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,085 (-1%) realized −$1,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%405W / 369L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$1,832
sports 15% −$4,678
world 3% −$424
other 1% −$55
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -49.1% -54.0% 38% 31% -33.1%
≤30d 45 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 38% -22.3%
≤90d 425 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 49% -11.9%
all 774 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 47% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 47% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 45% -19.7%
15% -29.8% 44% -27.5%
20% -36.7% 41% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$116 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses405 / 369
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions0
Markets (closed)774 / 774
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$157
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 774 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $588 +$422 +72%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,069 −$495 -46%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $619 −$611 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,858 +$95 +5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $376 +$164 +44%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $14 +$6 +42%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $85 −$84 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2,645 +$286 +11%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $993 −$977 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $312 +$129 +41%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $378 −$363 -96%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $198 −$194 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,009 −$994 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $201 +$22 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $602 −$111 -18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $315 −$310 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$131 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $339 +$63 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $448 +$54 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,003 +$108 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 +$163 +40%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $308 −$65 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,868 −$902 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $867 −$864 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,068 +$66 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $962 +$39 +4%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $742 +$10 +1%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $599 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $411 −$400 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $243 +$651 +267%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $42 +$73 +174%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $20 +$38 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $132 −$130 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $616 +$187 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $79 −$76 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $51 +$24 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $121 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $229 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $272 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $356 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $274 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $362 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $298 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $321 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $657 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $298 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $278 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $74 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $306 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $500 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $172 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $517 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $160 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $276 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $298 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $320 4h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $182 4h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $359 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $17 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $68 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $88 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $109 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $14 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $179 6h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records