Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbab9…3499 world 32 markets active 21h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$314 · open +$162
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$395
14 days−$369
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$171
culture 1% +$1
politics 1% +$12
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.1% -17.7% 33% 0% -21.3%
≤30d 20 +11.8% +1.2% 55% 5% -13.4%
≤90d 20 +11.8% +1.2% 55% 5% -13.4%
all 20 +11.8% +1.2% 55% 5% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 5% -13.4%
10% -8.5% 5% -21.7%
15% -17.3% 5% -29.2%
20% -25.4% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$535) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +29% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$67 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5,093
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage20d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,090 $2,105 +$15 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,669 $1,757 +$88 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $257 $286 +$29 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $186 $185 −$1 (-0%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $174 $176 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $113 $125 +$12 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $105 $109 +$3 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $16 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 15 $91 −$22 -24%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $323 +$17 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,544 −$276 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $870 −$80 -9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $192 −$36 -19%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 06 $264 −$28 -11%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $957 −$23 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $470 +$40 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $816 +$12 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 04 $46 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $535 +$23 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $180 +$3 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $169 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $242 +$8 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $440 −$5 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 30 $182 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 30 $15 +$42 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 20h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 29h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 29h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $25 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $0 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 70¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,092.52 · official $5,092.58 (match) · 278 history records