Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbab5…9349 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+5%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$113
14 days+$114
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$54
sports 30% +$86
crypto 26% −$20
world 4% +$10
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +76.6% +59.8% 56% 56% +72.4%
≤30d 13 +51.5% +37.0% 54% 54% +50.5%
≤90d 49 -38.1% -44.0% 27% 27% -5.1%
all 49 -38.1% -44.0% 27% 27% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 27% -5.1%
10% -49.3% 27% -14.2%
15% -54.2% 27% -22.5%
20% -58.7% 24% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage39d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +307%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +376%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$34 +170%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 18 $16 +$14 +90%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 56¢ $15 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 30d
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 31d
Will Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 32d
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 32d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 32d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 32d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.58 · official $45.58 (match) · 70 history records