Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbab2…a1f3 world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 77L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$34
other 17% $0
sports 15% −$1
politics 14% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 -0.5% -9.9% 39% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 1% -9.3%
all 108 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)108 / 112
History coverage309d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $230 $232 +$2 (+1%)
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $432 −$2 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $225 −$8 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $452 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $225 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $181 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$5 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $198 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $450 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $452 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $218 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $485 −$2 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $610 −$6 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $545 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $98 −$5 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $566 +$28 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $218 +$5 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $184 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $174 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $143 −$7 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $53 −$3 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $73 +$5 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $363 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $176 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $182 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $175 +$20 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $148 +$12 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $7 $0 -4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $122 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $95 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $634 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $290 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $938 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $469 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $150 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $153 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $230 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $150 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $58 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $166 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $51 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $64 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $152 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $145 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $72 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $217 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $225 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $186 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $171 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $225 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $225 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $75 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $145 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $75 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $76 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.39 · official $232.28 (match) · 572 history records