Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xbab0…7674 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%41W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$11
crypto 13% +$2
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses41 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage504d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $41 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $5,188 −$11 -0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $47 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 06 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 06 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $30 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 123d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 149d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $32 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 99¢ $34 242d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $11 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $41 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 365d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,177 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.98 · official $65.98 (match) · 110 history records