Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5

score

BA 0xbab0…6e92 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$7,753 (+59%) realized +$7,766 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR82%break-even

Win rate82%23W / 5L

Whale WR86%big bets

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$450per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +82%

net ROI/market (all)+40.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	28	+55.0%	+40.2%	82%	82%	+46.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.2%	82%	+46.7%
10%	+26.8%	75%	+32.6%
15%	+14.5%	64%	+19.8%
20%	+3.3%	54%	+8.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 86% (≥$509) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +68% → late +42% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$395 vs −$269 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.77 per $1 lost it wins $6.77

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage

Net worth$559

Realized+$7,766

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses23 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)86%

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)28 / 29

History coverage283d

Avg bet$450

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Yes	64¢	62¢	$572	$559	−$13 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?	Mar 16	$299	+$255	+85%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07?	Jan 08	$443	+$510	+115%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?	Jan 04	$952	+$490	+52%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?	Jan 03	$1,232	−$280	-23%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?	Jan 01	$499	−$499	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30?	Dec 30	$1,086	+$486	+45%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?	Dec 30	$417	−$417	-100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28?	Dec 28	$145	+$271	+187%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	Dec 28	$800	+$536	+67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?	Dec 27	$509	+$291	+57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23?	Dec 24	$170	+$329	+194%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-14?	Dec 15	$238	+$117	+49%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-14?	Dec 14	$600	+$338	+56%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14?	Dec 14	$147	−$147	-100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?	Dec 14	$150	+$118	+79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13?	Dec 13	$470	+$159	+34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 10	$500	+$262	+52%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 10	$1,800	+$4,001	+222%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09?	Dec 10	$500	+$141	+28%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?	Oct 02	$199	+$38	+19%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28?	Sep 28	$169	+$187	+111%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20?	Sep 20	$100	+$11	+11%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20?	Sep 20	$265	$0	-0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20?	Sep 20	$178	+$87	+49%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?	Sep 19	$100	+$163	+163%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17?	Sep 17	$204	+$160	+78%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?	Sep 16	$197	+$58	+29%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?	Sep 16	$110	+$86	+78%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	64¢	$578	1h
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$299	103d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07?	BUY Yes	43¢	$300	169d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07?	BUY Yes	56¢	$143	169d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?	BUY Yes	66¢	$952	173d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?	SELL Yes	51¢	$952	173d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,232	174d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?	BUY Yes	65¢	$499	176d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,572	177d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1,086	177d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?	BUY Yes	65¢	$417	178d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28?	SELL Yes	86¢	$417	179d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28?	BUY Yes	30¢	$145	180d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	BUY No	60¢	$800	180d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?	SELL Yes	99¢	$800	181d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?	BUY Yes	63¢	$509	181d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23?	BUY No	34¢	$170	185d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-14?	BUY Yes	67¢	$238	193d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-14?	SELL No	99¢	$110	194d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-14?	SELL No	76¢	$828	194d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-14?	BUY No	50¢	$600	194d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14?	BUY Yes	36¢	$147	194d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?	BUY Yes	56¢	$150	195d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$629	195d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13?	BUY Yes	74¢	$470	195d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?	SELL Yes	73¢	$762	197d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	48¢	$500	197d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5,801	197d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	31¢	$1,800	198d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09?	BUY Yes	78¢	$500	199d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.59 · official $558.59 (match) · 57 history records